New Iberia, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

516
FXUS64 KLCH 091945
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A surface wave and upper level disturbance will bring pockets of
  heavy rainfall with a flood potential over Acadiana through the
  remainder of the afternoon.

- An upper level low will linger in the region over the weekend
  into Monday with scattered showers and temperatures 5 to 10
  degrees below normal.

- Runoff from the recent rainfall will continue to produce
  elevated hydro flows with numerous river points expected to
  remain in flood through the weekend.

- High pressure building in early next week will lead to drying
  conditions and a warming trend through end of next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

A rather complex weather situation this afternoon. Overall a
weakness remains aloft with an upper level low in the region with
a glob of highly anomalous Gulf moisture over Acadiana. Meanwhile,
a surface wave over south central Louisiana moving along an old
frontal boundary/coastal trough is helping to produce numerous
showers with pockets of heavy rainfall.

The surface wave is expected to continue to gradually push east
over the next few hours pushing the heavy rain threat off to the
east. Meanwhile, areas that were not worked over from today`s
convection, will see scattered showers from diurnal heating
develop. These showers will decrease with the loss of daytime
heating.

The weakness and cut off low aloft will linger through the
weekend. A surface low developing along the coast is expected to
move toward the central Gulf coast and keep the highly anomalous
moisture to the east of the forecast area. Therefore, expect
mainly scattered showers each day during the weekend due to the
weakness aloft and daytime heating. At this time, the heavier rain
should be east of the forecast area, and parameters do not favor
any strong convection.

What we will see also over Mother`s Day Weekend, is with the cloud
cover and mainly a northerly flow, temperatures will be some 5 to
10 degrees below climo norms.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

The upper level weakness will begin to elongate over the region on
Monday before pushing off to the north and east as an upper level
ridge builds in from the south.

With the weakness hanging around on Monday, there still could be a
low chance for showers. However, when the ridge builds in, drying
conditions can be expected ending rain chances for the remainder
of the period.

Also, southerly winds will resume over the forecast area providing
for a warming trend with temperatures becoming near or slightly
above climo norms.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Surface wave moving east along a surface boundary near the coast
combined with an upper level disturbance and a very moist air mass
will produce numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over central
and southern Louisiana for the remainder of the afternoon. The
KLFT and KARA terminals will be affect the most with prevailing
showers and MVFR conditions with occasional IFR conditions due to
low ceilings and heavy rainfall.

Shower activity is expected to decrease this evening with low
ceilings at MVFR levels through the night.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

A coastal low is expected to move across the northwest Gulf
through Saturday allowing for a modest offshore flow. The surface
low will linger over the region keeping a light to occasionally
modest northerly flow in place through the weekend.

Early next week, the surface low will wash out with high pressure
at the surface ridging in from the east. This will allow a light
to modest southerly flow to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  61  74  55  70 /  40  50  20  40
LCH  62  77  58  71 /  20  50  20  30
LFT  62  76  57  75 /  30  40  10  40
BPT  62  80  58  73 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07